The US economy has shown impressive growth figures in recent years, with a seemingly strong labor market, record highs on the stock market, and GDP that continues to expand despite global challenges. However, behind these positive indicators, there are warning signs that may indicate structural vulnerabilities and latent problems.

While headlines highlight economic achievements, experts and analysts point out that the strength of the US economy hides worrying weaknesses. Although the US remains one of the most dynamic economies in the world, these red flags could affect its stability in the medium and long term. Let's take a look at them.

Public debt at unsustainable levels

One of the biggest structural problems in the US economy is its public debt, which has reached historic levels. Currently, the national debt exceeds $34 trillion and continues to rise at an alarming rate. Although public spending has been a key tool in maintaining growth and financing social and infrastructure programs, the cost of maintaining this debt has skyrocketed due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

Interest payments on the federal debt already represent a significant portion of the government budget, reducing the capacity to invest in essential areas such as education, health, and security.

In addition, continued borrowing may reduce market confidence in the country's financial stability, which could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and US Treasury bonds, affecting not only the domestic economy but also global markets.

Persistent inflation and loss of purchasing power

While inflation has shown signs of slowing, it remains a structural problem affecting millions of Americans. Although official data show a decline in the inflation rate from the peaks of 2022, prices for essential goods and services such as food, housing, and healthcare remain high. This has led to an erosion of the purchasing power of the middle and lower classes, who face difficulties in meeting their basic needs without resorting to debt.

In addition, wage increases have not kept pace with inflation in many sectors, leading to widespread discontent among workers. Despite an apparently robust labor market, the number of low-quality jobs with precarious conditions continues to rise, prompting strikes and protests in key sectors of the economy.

This imbalance between inflation and wages could lead to stagnant consumption, directly affecting GDP growth.

Crisis in the real estate sector

The US real estate market is going through a period of uncertainty marked by rising interest rates and declining housing affordability. The Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy has increased the cost of mortgage loans, significantly reducing demand for housing and slowing down the construction of new real estate projects.

This situation has had a double impact: on the one hand, housing prices remain unaffordable for many buyers; on the other, the decline in activity in the sector has begun to affect employment in construction and related sectors.

The real estate crisis has also reached the commercial market, where offices and commercial spaces in large cities are experiencing an oversupply due to the transformation of the labor market and the consolidation of teleworking—of which Trump is a staunch enemy.

Excessive dependence on consumption and credit

Economic growth in the United States depends largely on domestic consumption, which accounts for approximately 70% of GDP. However, this consumption has been increasingly driven by credit rather than by an increase in real income. Household debt has reached record levels, with credit cards and personal loans at historic highs, driven by high interest rates.

The risk of a credit bubble is real, as consumers rely on loans to maintain their lifestyle while facing rising costs. If the economic situation worsens and unemployment rises, personal debt defaults could trigger a credit crisis that would affect banks and the financial system as a whole. The combination of high debt levels and restrictive interest rates poses a latent threat to the country's economic stability.

Despite the resilience of the US economy in recent years, the warning signs should not be ignored by the Trump administration. Although monetary authorities have attempted to balance the situation with adjustment and selective stimulus policies, uncertainty about the economic future remains high.

Financial markets also reflect this concern, with recurring episodes of volatility and growing speculation about possible future recessions.

Sergio Delgado, Investment Strategies