Is a global gold shortage looming? Why is gold pouring out of London and into the U.S.? What's really behind gold breaking all-time highs? Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint, explains the dramatic changes taking place in the gold market, driven by tariff concerns, potential policy changes and rising geopolitical tensions.

In a recent interview, Phair highlighted significant movements in the gold and silver markets, pointing to a growing demand for physical metals in the United States and around the world.       

Fears of tariffs boost gold shipments 

Concerns about possible tariffs under a second Trump administration are prompting investors to move their gold to the United States. "The goal was to bring all the metal into the U.S.," Phair told Kitco News, noting that banks are trying to minimize risk by ensuring their holdings are within U.S. borders.

This has led to a surge in gold shipments to the COMEX exchange in New York, with inventories up nearly 75% since the U.S. election.

London gold market under pressure 

Rising demand for gold in the United States has put a strain on the London gold market, with waiting times for withdrawals at the Bank of England skyrocketing. According to Phair, "there seems to be even greater demand here, almost as if someone wants a lot of gold and silver in the United States."

This situation has raised concerns about possible delays and shortages in London.

Invisible forces and possible audits 

Speculation abounds as to who might be behind the growing demand for physical gold in the US.

Phair suggested that a new administration might want to conduct an audit of U.S. gold reserves. "Maybe ... someone will realize they need to make sure there's an audit, and they want more material?"

He also noted that key figures such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may favor a greater role for gold in monetary policy.

Global rebalancing act 

The demand for gold is not limited to the United States; the BRICS countries are also accumulating significant gold reserves. "Could it be that the U.S. simply wants to make sure it keeps the top spot, the top position in gold?" questioned Phair, noting that the focus has shifted from bitcoin to physical gold. Despite rising gold prices, demand from retail investors has been subdued. Phair believes this is due to distractions and limited discretionary income.

However, he anticipates that retail investors will return to the market when they realize the changes that are taking place. "You have to wait for people to realize what's going on," he said.

Leasing rates for gold and silver have increased, indicating a tightening of the physical metals market. "Normally, a bank ... owns their gold, but they may lease it to someone to use for a short period of time ... but right now they want it," Phair explained. This increase is due to the profitability of delivering gold to the Comex exchange.

The possible imposition of tariffs on gold raises questions about the future of gold trading. While some believe that gold is exempt due to its status as a monetary metal, Phair noted that banks are acting as if tariffs are a real possibility.

U.S. states are also exploring ways to incorporate gold into their financial systems. "There are more than a dozen states right now with bills on gold buying," he noted, highlighting a possible new wave of gold buyers.

Phair noted the rapid pace of change in the market and the difficulty consumers have in keeping up. "I've never seen anything like it," he admitted, predicting that we are in for an explosive decade.

The potential of silver 

Phair also highlighted silver's potential, noting that it has significant upside potential due to its industrial uses and growing deficit. "Silver has a lot of opportunities to perform well in this decade," he said, predicting increased demand as consumers realize its value.

Central banks, particularly those in the BRICS countries, could also consider adding silver to their reserves. Phair pointed to a draft Russian budget report for 2025 that included silver, suggesting a broader interest in diversifying into precious metals.

Anna Golubova, Kitco