Given the price action in gold and silver over the past two weeks, I knew I had to make room to analyze the situation. It has been exciting to see gold make new highs day after day, pull back and then head higher again. It's important to remember that pullbacks are a sign of a healthy market, but people seem to be pulling back. Last week I received several messages from Aurica clients asking where the market is going.
The simplified answer is that it all depends on what happens with tariffs. Increases and retaliatory tariffs mean higher prices, while their postponement or the implementation of selective tariffs should drive prices down. Considering the current market situation, I estimate support at $3,107, then $3,100, with resistance at $3,110 and then $3,150.
For me, the real star of the show is silver and the evolution of its ratio against gold. Over the past few months, I have watched silver lag behind gold, and now it is taking the brunt of it. At the time of writing, silver is down almost 4%, trading at $32.55, with a ratio of close to 96:1.
Silver is significantly undervalued, and if you have been considering entering this market, this could be a good time. Its industrial use case is weighing down its performance, as traders and market participants shy away due to uncertainty. However, as a calculated risk (like any investment), silver would be on my radar above gold or other precious metals. A price below $32.75 could attract buyers and help stabilize the market.
Josh Perez
Managing Director
Chief of Global Trading