The gold price has reached record highs, surpassing US$3,245 per ounce, in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, disruptive trade policies and an increasingly deteriorating fiscal outlook in the United States.

In this context, UBS Group and Goldman Sachs (GS) issued new bullish forecasts for the precious metal, agreeing that structural demand and macroeconomic risks will continue to support its rise through 2025 and beyond.

In a note, UBS revised upward its forecasts for the metal, setting a new target price of US$3,500 per ounce for all forecast horizons, including June, September and December 2025, as well as March 2026.

Swiss bank strategists argue that gold's recent rally, which has already posted 23 record closes so far this year, is driven by factors such as growing distrust of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, along with a level of investor exposure to gold that is still below the peaks reached after the global financial crisis.

In addition, the report highlights the transformation in institutional allocation towards the metal. "Apart from safe haven demand and tactical positioning by speculators, we observe signs of a more structural shift in gold allocations: for example, Beijing allows insurance funds to invest in gold and central banks systematically increase the proportion of gold in total reserves."

Gold at US$4,000

At the same time, Goldman Sachs also increased its projections. According to a note reviewed by Bloomberg, the bank expects gold to close 2025 at around US$3,700 per ounce and reach US$4,000 by mid-2026.

This adjustment is based on an acceleration of purchases by the official sector, such as central banks and other government institutions, estimated at 80 tons per month, and on the increased probability of a recession in the United States, which Goldman economists put at 45%.

Should that scenario materialize, analysts warn that flows into gold-backed ETFs could intensify, pushing the price to US$3,880 before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, UBS expects central banks to purchase around 1,000 metric tons of gold by 2025, adding to three consecutive years of purchases above that level.

As for ETF demand, the bank has raised its projection to 450 metric tons from the 300 previously estimated.

The limited response of mining supply to these prices, coupled with lower market liquidity due to holdings concentrated in official reserves and exchange-traded funds, could amplify price movements in the coming months.

Carlos Rodríguez Salcedo, Bloomberg Línea