Trade uncertainty and monetary policy drive gold and silver in 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold will continue its upward trajectory. Silver will follow this trend.
The tariff uncertainty unleashed by US President Donald Trump continues to trigger a series of reactions in financial markets. Protectionist measures affecting countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada have raised fears of a possible global economic slowdown, prompting investors to seek refuge in assets considered safe, such as gold and silver.
In the case of gold, it recently reached historic highs in 2024, exceeding US$2,900 per ounce, driven by growing demand for a safe haven amid economic uncertainty. So far this year, it has risen 11.5%, and several analysts predict that it will exceed US$3,000 this year.
Among them are Goldman Sachs (GS), which last week raised its forecast for the price of gold, projecting an 8% increase to US$3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven mainly by increased demand from central banks.
According to analyst Lina Thomas' report, this trend is due to increased purchases of gold reserves by financial institutions, especially since the freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022. In addition, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut would make gold more attractive compared to bonds.
However, the report notes that speculation in the futures markets could put downward pressure on prices, as many investors have accumulated long positions in gold due to the uncertainty generated by the Trump administration's policies.
Even so, Goldman Sachs warns that factors such as fears of high government debt or geopolitical risks could push the price of gold up to US$3,300.
Weak dollar boosts gold price
The price of gold continued its upward trend in February, reaching several all-time highs before retreating and closing the month at US$2,835 per ounce, up 0.8% from January, according to the World Gold Council.
This performance was driven by a weak dollar, increased geopolitical risk, and falling interest rates. In addition, gold purchases through ETFs recorded net inflows of US$9.4 billion (100 tons), the highest figure since March 2022, with strong leadership from funds in the US and Asia.
The World Gold Council report highlights that uncertainty over trade tariffs and aggressive foreign policies have reduced the appeal of the “Trump trade,” boosting safe-haven assets such as Treasury bonds and gold.
Added to this are expectations of higher fiscal deficits due to increased military spending and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more flexible stance with at least two rate cuts this year.
According to a survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the price of gold will trade at an average of US$2,736.69 per ounce in 2025, remaining close to its current level.
The gold price forecast, based on the opinions of 26 analysts, shows a divided view: the most optimistic estimate comes from Keisuke Okui of Sumitomo Corp., who projects a price of up to US$2,925, while the most pessimistic is from Robin Bhar of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, with a projection of US$2,500 per ounce.
Where is the price of silver headed?
The London Bullion Market Association survey also shows that market analysts project that the price of silver will follow the upward trend of the price of gold in 2025, with an estimated average of US$32.86 per ounce, representing a 16% increase over the 2024 average of US$28.27.
This projection is supported by growing industrial and investment demand, as well as the historical tendency of the price of silver to follow the behavior of the price of gold.
The highest forecast comes from Nicky Shiels, strategist at MKS PAMP, who says that silver is shaping up to be the best-performing precious metal in 2025, driven by key macroeconomic factors.
A synchronized cycle of interest rate cuts by central banks, a more favorable environment in both China and the United States, and continued strong solar demand, coupled with a downward trend in the US dollar, favor a revaluation of the price of silver.
However, the upward trend will depend on investment demand outweighing any potential contraction in industrial consumption, especially given the uncertainty generated by Donald Trump's potential tariffs. In this context, market participation—both institutional and retail—should exceed the moderate capital inflows recorded in 2024.
The appeal of silver over gold is based on several factors, according to Shiels. First, its price is relatively lower compared to historical peaks, suggesting greater room for appreciation. In addition, its correlation with a weaker dollar and a reflation cycle makes it more elastic in terms of valuation. Added to this is the tightness of the physical market, with lower available stocks, which reinforces its upward bias.
On the other hand, Nicholas Frappell (ABC Refinery) is the most conservative analyst, with an estimate of US$28.25 per ounce for the price of silver.
For the analyst, while it maintains an upward trend on a weekly and monthly basis, supported by growing demand from electrification and the boom in electric vehicles, on the downside, a stronger dollar could slow Indian demand, while the risk of new tariffs could affect global economic growth.
Carlos Rodríguez Salcedo, Bloomberg