Yesterday was an exciting day for silver, which rose 2.52% to a 13-year high, finally breaking above the key $34-$35 resistance zone that I have been watching for months.
This is a level that I have called "the line in the sand" to confirm a real breakout and the beginning of the next phase in the bull market.
What makes this move even more attractive is that it is happening just as momentum around the March 31 "Buy Silver Day" is accelerating and gaining solid media attention, which may be playing a key role in propelling silver through this long-standing barrier.
In this article, I will discuss the current silver situation and what I am observing next.
COMEX silver futures (the key benchmark I follow instead of spot silver) finally closed above the critical $34-$35 resistance zone today on strong volume, marking a 13-year high.
This breakout is an important technical milestone and is just what I anticipated as the trigger for the next powerful phase of the bull market. It is a very bullish signal, but it is important to note that COMEX silver futures must hold above the $35 level for the breakout to remain intact.
A drop below that threshold would invalidate today's move, something worth mentioning given the persistent manipulation in the silver market.
What makes the current silver breakout particularly intriguing and promising is the context of growing speculation around a possible tightening of the silver price.
In recent months, there has been a scramble to bring physical silver into the United States, leading to a marked increase in inventories at the COMEX, which have risen by approximately two-thirds since December.
While the official explanation points to possible Trump administration tariffs on imported silver, there is reason to believe that may only be part of the story.
It is possible that something bigger is developing behind the scenes. No one knows for sure yet what exactly it is, but I think it will become clear very soon.
The increase in trading volume since December in the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), the best-known physical silver exchange-traded product, further confirms the competition for physical silver. In stark contrast, the non-physically backed iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen stable volume over the same period, highlighting investors' clear preference for products backed by real silver.
From a technical standpoint, I am expecting a decisive close above the $11.20-$11.80 resistance zone in PSLV, which would serve as another strong signal that the bull market is indeed underway.
The gold-silver ratio is a valuable tool for silver investors, as it provides information on the relative strength of silver compared to gold from a technical perspective.
Over the past year, gold has significantly outperformed gold, while silver has lagged, but this dynamic could be about to change. Silver remains significantly undervalued relative to gold, and a correction of this imbalance appears imminent.
I am now closely watching the 87-88 support zone in the gold-silver ratio; a decisive break below this level would indicate that silver is about to move into the spotlight, and even take the lead in the next leg of the precious metals bull market.
The Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) is a custom indicator I developed to validate and analyze silver price trends. It averages gold and copper prices, weighted so that copper (multiplied by 540) balances the influence of gold.
While silver itself is not included in the data, the SSPI has demonstrated a strong correlation with the actual silver price, providing valuable insight into underlying market dynamics.
For much of the past year, the 2,600-2,640 area served as a key resistance level for the SSPI.
I have consistently stated that a break above this range would signal the start of a bull market in both SSPI and silver, and that break occurred in early February.
Since then, SSPI has continued to rise steadily, which should continue to support silver's upward momentum, especially as algorithmic trading strengthens price relationships between metals.
Gold plays an important role in influencing the price of silver, and over the past year, it has performed outstandingly well, just yesterday reaching a new all-time high of $3,100 on COMEX futures.
With gold holding firmly above the key psychological level of $3,000, the trend remains clearly to the upside. This continued bullish momentum in gold should generate strong momentum for silver going forward.
As for silver mining companies and their ETFs, I have seen many people on social media today expressing frustration with the lagging mining companies, even as silver posted strong gains.
My take on this is twofold: first, copper retreated 2.3% today, and since many silver miners also produce copper, that probably affected their performance.
Second, the miners tend to lag the underlying metal in the early stages of a rally. I believe this precious metals bull market will unfold in the following sequence: gold first, then silver, followed by gold miners, and finally silver miners. It is a process that requires patience, but once it is fully underway, I believe it will be worth the wait.
The flagship silver mining ETF, Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), has had a good month to date, with a gain of 16.44%. A few months ago, it broke out of a long-term triangular pattern dating back to 2011, an early sign that a major bull market was ahead for silver mining stocks.
I am now watching for a decisive close above the $48-$52 resistance zone to confirm the next leg higher and give the green light to this emerging uptrend. It is important to remember that we are still in the early stages, so it is critical to be patient and focus on the big picture. I use this chart as a guide for what is to come.
I also closely follow the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), which I find particularly attractive because I believe smaller silver mining companies have the most explosive upside potential in the coming silver bull market.
SILJ has been forming a long-term triangle pattern since 2013, and once it finally breaks out, I expect silver mining stocks to soar.
Until then, I'm patient; it's still early days and there's no need to stress. In fact, I'd rather they didn't take off too quickly just yet, because I'm still looking to accumulate more at these levels!
In summary, things really seem to be looking up for silver after COMEX silver futures broke above the key $34-$35 resistance zone.
We are also seeing bullish breakouts in other currencies, such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar. For confirmation, I am watching for a decisive breakout in euro-denominated silver and the other currencies mentioned above.
I don't see it as a single binary event, but rather as an accelerating process: a momentum building layer by layer. I wanted to give you all a preview of what is happening.
I am optimistic, but as I mentioned earlier, these breakouts must hold above their key levels to remain valid. A solid follow-through over the next few days would considerably confirm that the bull market in silver is indeed underway.
Jesse Colombo. Money Metals