The U.S. economy has shown impressive growth figures in recent years, with a seemingly robust labor market, record stock market levels and a GDP that continues to expand despite global challenges. However, behind these positive indicators are warning signs that may indicate structural vulnerabilities and latent problems.

While the headlines highlight economic achievements, experts and analysts point out that the strength of the U.S. economy hides worrying fragilities. While the United States remains one of the most dynamic economies in the world, these 'red flags' could affect its stability in the medium and long term. We analyze them.

Public debt at unsustainable levels

One of the biggest structural problems of the U.S. economy is its public debt, which has reached historic levels. Currently**, the national debt exceeds $34 trillion and continues to grow at an alarming rate.** While government spending has been a key tool for maintaining growth and funding social and infrastructure programs, the cost of maintaining this debt has skyrocketed due to the Federal Reserve's raising of interest rates.

Interest payments on the federal debt already represent a significant portion of the government budget, reducing the capacity to invest in essential areas such as education, health and security.

In addition, continued indebtedness may reduce market confidence in the country's financial stability, which could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, affecting not only the domestic economy but also global markets.

Persistent inflation and loss of purchasing power

While inflation has shown signs of slowing, it remains a structural problem affecting millions of Americans. Although official data show a decrease in the inflation rate from the 2022 peaks**, prices of essential goods and services, such as food, housing and health care, remain at elevated levels**. This has led to an erosion of the purchasing power of the middle and lower classes, who face difficulties in meeting their basic needs without resorting to debt.

In addition, wage increases have not kept pace with inflation in many sectors, which has generated widespread discontent among workers. Despite an apparently robust labor market, the number of low-quality jobs with precarious conditions continues to increase, prompting strikes and protests in key sectors of the economy.

This lack of balance between inflation and wages could lead to stagnation in consumption, directly affecting GDP growth.

Crisis in the real estate sector

The U.S. housing market is going through a phase of uncertainty marked by rising interest rates and declining housing affordability. The monetary tightening policy implemented by the Federal Reserve has raised the cost of mortgage loans, which has significantly reduced the demand for housing and slowed the construction of new real estate projects.

This situation has generated a double impact: on the one hand, housing prices remain unaffordable for many buyers; on the other hand, the reduction in the sector's activity has begun to affect employment in the construction and related sectors.

The real estate crisis has also reached the commercial market, where offices and commercial spaces in large cities are experiencing an oversupply due to the transformation of the labor market and the consolidation of teleworking -of which Trump is a staunch enemy-.

Excessive dependence on consumption and credit

U.S. economic growth is highly dependent on domestic consumption, which accounts for approximately 70% of GDP. However, this consumption has been increasingly driven by credit rather than by an increase in citizens' real incomes. Household indebtedness has reached record levels, with credit cards and personal loans at historic highs, driven by high interest rates.

The risk of a credit bubble is real, as consumers rely on loans to maintain their lifestyle while facing rising costs. If the economic situation worsens and unemployment rises, personal debt defaults could trigger a default crisis that would affect banking and the financial system as a whole. The combination of high debt levels and restrictive interest rates represents a latent threat to the country's economic stability.

Despite the resilience of the US economy in recent years, the warning signs should not be ignored by the Trump administration. Although the monetary authorities have tried to balance the situation with tightening policies and selective stimulus, uncertainty about the economic future remains high.

Financial markets also reflect this concern, with recurring bouts of volatility and increasing speculation about possible future recessions.

Sergio Delgado, Investment Strategies