The price of gold has reached historic highs, exceeding US$3,245 per ounce, in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, disruptive trade policies, and a growing deterioration in the fiscal outlook in the United States.
In this context, UBS Group and Goldman Sachs (GS) issued new bullish forecasts for the precious metal, agreeing that structural demand and macroeconomic risks will continue to sustain its rise through 2025 and beyond.
In a note, UBS revised its forecasts for the metal upward, setting a new target price of US$3,500 per ounce for all forecast horizons, including June, September, and December 2025, as well as March 2026.
The Swiss bank's strategists argue that the recent rise in gold, which has already recorded 23 record closings so far this year, is driven by factors such as growing distrust of the US dollar and Treasury bonds, along with a level of investor exposure to gold that is still below the peaks reached after the global financial crisis.
In addition, the report highlights the transformation in institutional allocation toward the metal. “Apart from safe-haven demand and tactical positioning by speculators, we see signs of a more structural shift in gold allocations: for example, Beijing is allowing insurance funds to invest in gold, and central banks are systematically increasing the proportion of gold in total reserves.”
Gold at US$4,000
At the same time, Goldman Sachs also raised its projections. According to a note reviewed by Bloomberg, the bank expects gold to close 2025 at around US$3,700 per ounce and reach US$4,000 by mid-2026.
This adjustment is based on an acceleration in purchases by the official sector, such as central banks and other government institutions, estimated at 80 tons per month, and on the increased likelihood of a recession in the United States, which Goldman economists put at 45%.